In the push for Kamala Harris to win North Carolina, Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor, has unexpectedly taken centre stage. Despite being the focus of discussions with Harris volunteers and voters, Robinson is being portrayed negatively, with Democrats circulating signs and billboards in key cities highlighting what they describe as his ‘extremism’. Harris has even launched a television advertising campaign that draws attention to Donald Trump’s history of praising Robinson.
Since Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, no Democrat has won the state at the presidential level, but North Carolina is once again proving to be highly competitive, with Trump having won it by a narrow margin of 1.3 percentage points four years ago. Democrats believe that Robinson’s controversial past could provide Harris with the necessary advantage.
A Harris win in North Carolina would significantly complicate Trump’s path to the presidency, a fact he acknowledged during a campaign stop, stating that winning North Carolina is crucial for his overall victory. However, in a recent event, Trump conspicuously avoided mentioning Robinson, despite previously endorsing him enthusiastically. Meanwhile, Democrats are making efforts to tie Trump to Robinson’s controversies, especially after explicit posts linked to Robinson surfaced, prompting some Republican officials and the Republican Governors Association to distance themselves from him.
Although Trump hasn’t withdrawn his endorsement, Robinson’s name has become notably absent at recent Republican events. For instance, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Whatley, overlooked Robinson when listing key state officials, despite audience members shouting Robinson’s name. Similarly, both Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have avoided mentioning Robinson in recent appearances, though Vance acknowledged the controversy when questioned by reporters.
Republican insiders are concerned about the impact of the Robinson scandal, fearing that it could affect not just the governor’s race but also down-ballot candidates in Congress and the state legislature. Democrats, on the other hand, are cautious about whether the Robinson scandal alone will be enough to shift North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes to their side. There’s a sense that Georgia might present a better opportunity for Harris, though North Carolina’s diverse and changing demographics, including suburban, college-educated, Hispanic, and African American voters, offer hope.
The Harris campaign is focusing on Robinson’s troubles in an attempt to gain an edge, aiming to persuade some Trump supporters to stay away from the polls and hoping to win over some of the voters who supported Nikki Haley in the state’s March primary. Campaign strategist Dan Kanninen described the race in North Carolina as a “dead-heat tossup,” noting that the increased focus on Robinson might influence voters’ perceptions.
Despite concerns about Robinson, there remains strong enthusiasm for Trump among Republicans, who are keen to separate the two. For example, Greg Mills, a Republican school board candidate, expressed ongoing support for Robinson, though he acknowledged that the allegations against him are troubling if true. Meanwhile, other Republican voters, like Kathy Goodman, insisted that Trump should not be judged based on Robinson’s actions.
The Democrats, however, have a stronger ground campaign, with 27 offices across the state and over 250 paid staff, along with more than 26,000 volunteers who joined after Harris stepped in for President Biden. In contrast, the Trump campaign has largely delegated voter outreach to outside groups, focusing more on monitoring “voter integrity” once voting begins.
Who is Robinson?
Robinson’s forum posts also revealed a contradictory interest in transgender pornography, despite his recent record of anti-transgender rhetoric. This aspect of his past notably conflicts with his current public stance, which includes vehement condemnation of transgender rights.
Policy Positions: Robinson’s staunchly conservative policy positions are a key part of his political identity. His stance on abortion is particularly striking. In the 1980s, he admitted to having paid for his girlfriend’s abortion, yet he has since become one of the most vocal anti-abortion advocates. He describes abortion as “genocide” and “murder” and supports stricter abortion laws in North Carolina. In 2023, Robinson announced that he would back a bill banning abortion without exceptions, should he have legislative authority. Recently, he signalled his willingness to maintain North Carolina’s 12-week abortion ban, which includes exceptions for rape, incest, and the mother’s health, but he aims for more restrictive measures, such as a six-week or even a total ban.
Regarding LGBTQ+ issues, Robinson has been equally contentious. He consistently argues against transgender rights and same-sex marriage, asserting that gender is strictly binary. He has also expressed disdain for transgender women using women’s bathrooms, even suggesting they should face arrest for doing so.
Robinson’s views on economic and education policies similarly reflect a deeply conservative ideology. He opposes the teaching of critical race theory in schools, arguing that it fosters division. His stances align with the broader Republican opposition to what they describe as “woke ideology,” though critics argue these positions attempt to suppress discussions of systemic racism and history.
Why Trump Needs Him: Trump’s endorsement of Robinson highlights the former president’s efforts to reinforce his influence in key battleground states. North Carolina is vital to Trump’s 2024 strategy, and having a candidate like Robinson, who can energise the conservative base, is essential for maintaining momentum. Robinson’s unapologetic style, controversial views, and dedication to conservative values make him a valuable ally for Trump in rallying support among voters who feel alienated or threatened by progressive policies.
Robinson’s ability to galvanise far-right voters makes him an asset for Trump’s political agenda. His blend of provocative statements and hardline conservative policies resonates with a segment of the electorate that is crucial for Republicans, especially in swing states like North Carolina.
With inputs from agencies